Playbooks
6. Analysis - Rivals Analysis
Rivals Analysis
Category 5: Analysis
Matrix Position: Protect Externally
February 2026
1. Purpose
Guides systematic analysis of competitive dynamics, rival strategies, and the broader competitive landscape. Rivals Analysis goes beyond competitor profiling to examine the competitive system: how rivals think, what drives their decisions, where their strengths create vulnerabilities, and how competitive dynamics are likely to evolve. This playbook treats competitive intelligence as a strategic capability.
2. When to Deploy This Playbook
Deploy when entering competitive markets, when competitive dynamics are shifting, when rivals make unexpected moves, or when strategic planning requires competitive context. Deploy periodically to maintain competitive awareness. Deploy with particular intensity when competitive disruption threatens current market position.
3. Opening Provocation
You are watching your competitors. Are they watching you? And more importantly, are you watching what your competitors are watching? The next threat to your position may come from a direction neither you nor your rivals are currently monitoring.
4. Five-Stage Cascade
Each stage processes through the Five-Layer Dome. The Smart pathway optimizes for the best available outcome. The Wise pathway asks whether that outcome is the right one.
| Stage | Core Question | Smart Pathway | Wise Pathway |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCAN | What is the competitive reality? | Map the competitive landscape: direct rivals, indirect competitors, potential entrants, substitutes. Assess rival strategies, capabilities, financial health, and strategic intent. | Ask what rivals do better than you and why. Analysis that always concludes you are superior is dangerous. |
| PLAN | How do we build competitive advantage? | Identify positioning options. Assess sustainable vs temporary advantage. Model rival responses to strategic moves. Define intelligence requirements. | Consider whether cooperation may create more value than competition. Not every rival is an enemy. |
| ACT | Execute competitive strategy. | Implement positioning, monitor rival responses, adapt tactics based on intelligence, and protect competitive information. | Compete with integrity. Advantage built on deception or harm to customers is fragile. |
| LEAD | Who owns competitive intelligence? | Establish a competitive intelligence function with analytical capability, networks, and strategic reporting lines. | Lead by learning from rivals. Understand why their customers choose them. |
| GOVERN | Is competitive intelligence improving decisions? | Track intelligence quality, decision impact, and ratio of anticipated vs unanticipated moves. | Ensure competitive focus does not become obsession that displaces customer focus. |
5. Five-Layer Dome Integration
The Dome architecture ensures each cascade stage is processed through five analytical layers before decisions surface.
| Dome Layer | Function | Application |
|---|---|---|
| L1: Signal Processing | Detect competitive signals | Monitor rival moves, market share shifts, pricing changes, talent flows, patent activity, and switching patterns. |
| L2: Cognitive Defence | Counter blind spots | Challenge assumptions about rival capability, innovation, and strategy. |
| L3: Decision Geometry | Map competitive geometry | Model intersection of positions and differentiation opportunities. |
| L4: Strategic Foresight | Anticipate evolution | Project dynamics under market, technology, and regulatory scenarios. |
| L5: Wisdom Integration | Test for rightness | Ensure strategy serves customers, not only position. |
6. Key Frameworks Activated
Bounds-and-Angles
Durable Power Analysis
Rival Logic Modeling
Disruption Scanning
7. Decision Readiness Assessment (/40)
| Readiness Dimension | Score /5 | Evidence Required |
|---|---|---|
| Landscape Mapping | /5 | Competitor mapping |
| Rival Intelligence | /5 | Rival profiles |
| Disruption Awareness | /5 | Disruption monitoring |
| Positioning Clarity | /5 | Positioning analysis |
| Response Modeling | /5 | Scenario modeling |
| Intelligence Capability | /5 | Intelligence function |
| Customer Perspective | /5 | Customer research |
| Ethical Standards | /5 | Ethics policy |
8. Humanities Diagnostic Assessment (/5)
Examines analysis through ethical competition and customer benefit, ensuring strategy benefits the broader market ecosystem.
9. Related Playbooks
PB2 Market Entry, PB29 Sectoral Analysis, PB35 Strategic Thinking, PB12 Early Warning, PB27 Topic Analysis.
10. Boundary Conditions and Thresholds
Unethical intelligence gathering, inaccurate analysis, competitive obsession replacing customer focus, or ignored disruption signals undermine value.
11. Exit Criteria
Competitive intelligence systematic and accurate, rival behavior anticipated, and strategy differentiated and sustainable.
12. Closing Question
What do your competitors know about their customers that you do not know about yours? That gap is your greatest vulnerability.
PreEmpt.Life | Playbook 28: Rivals Analysis | ALEXIS Navigator™ v5.dome.11 | February 2026
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